Public research on Georgia elections and campaign technology. Read the analysis, then explore its data.
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Georgia has accepted 1,467,774 early ballots through Oct. 22. A feature examines the AJC’s report on suburban and rural early voting: counting the same days of both years, Trump-won counties are 11.8% ahead of 2022, Harris-won counties 22.9% and the 53 rural counties 7.2%.
With Wednesday’s ballots, our scenarios still put Jon Ossoff at roughly 51% to 54% of the two-party vote if Georgians vote as similar voters did in 2022. Cobb’s early voters lean more Democratic than in 2022; Athens-Clarke’s, slightly less.
Cobb added more to its lead over 2022 this week than any other Georgia county, and Athens-Clarke, after adding early voting sites, now has the largest percentage gain over 2022 of any county. Georgia accepted 10.0% more ballots this week than on the same days of 2022, while Cherokee and Forsyth, which led the first week’s pace, fell behind 2022 each day.
Georgia’s early voters lean more Democratic than they did at the same point in 2022: more ballots from Democratic neighborhoods, fewer from the most Republican ones and fewer early voters with a Republican primary history.
Nine suburban Atlanta counties account for nearly all of Georgia’s early-vote gain over 2022, while Fulton and DeKalb, where turnout was already higher, are only slightly ahead. Mail ballots are coming back more slowly than in 2022 or 2024; part of that is how six counties record returns, and the rest the records cannot yet explain.
Georgia accepted 162,854 early ballots on Monday, 5.6% more than on the matching Monday in 2022, its smallest weekday gain so far. Fulton, Gwinnett and Cobb led the gain, while Cherokee and Forsyth, both more than 50% ahead of 2022 after the first week, trailed their 2022 Monday counts.
Georgia accepted 25,157 early ballots on Sunday, 34% more than on the matching Sunday in 2022. Most of the gain came from Cobb, Henry, Forsyth and Newton, which held Sunday voting a week earlier than in 2022. Hispanic and Asian voters are also far ahead of their 2022 pace.
About half of Georgia’s early voters chose a Democratic ballot in their most recent party primary, up from 44.4% at this point in 2022. In-person ballots from Black voters are up 17% from 2022, while in-person ballots from White voters are even.
Black voters have cast 16,460 more early ballots than at this point in 2022, 11,102 of them 65 and older, as Georgia’s total passes 2022’s. Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton are still behind.
