With one more day of early voting counted, our Senate scenarios have not moved. If Georgians vote the way similar voters did in 2022, Jon Ossoff would win roughly 51% to 54% of the two-party vote, up from Raphael Warnock’s 50.5% in 2022.
Our model estimates that if the people who have already voted behave like similar voters did in 2022, Democrats lead among them by about 222,000 votes, up from about 210,000 through Tuesday. Election Day could erase much of it: in 2022, Warnock led the early vote by about 255,000 votes and lost Election Day by about 218,000.
This week’s early voters include more people with a Republican primary history than last week’s, as late voters did in 2022. But the balance is still more Democratic than on the same days in 2022, so the overall lean, and the scenarios, held.
Two Democratic counties are moving in opposite directions. Cobb’s early voters lean clearly more Democratic than in 2022; Athens-Clarke’s lean slightly less. Both are adding to the Democratic lead.
This is a short update to our full analysis of Oct. 21. We will publish a longer update on Saturday, Oct. 24, after the second week of weekday early voting ends. For daily turnout by county, see our report “Cobb adds the most early ballots and Athens-Clarke grows fastest in Georgia’s second week” and the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard. Early ballot records show who has voted, not how; votes are not counted until Election Day.
The scenarios, a day later
Our scenarios start from the 2022 Senate result and adjust it for the change we measure in who is voting early. They try two cases for Election Day, unchanged from 2022 or shifted as much as the early vote, and move how voters break 2 points in each direction. Our Oct. 21 analysis explains the method. With Wednesday’s ballots, every range is within a tenth of a point of where it was a day earlier.
The scenarios barely moved with Wednesday’s ballots
Democratic share of the two-party vote. Figures through Tuesday are recalculated from the latest ballot records, which include ballots accepted late. The estimated lead covers all early voters, including Gwinnett, and assumes they vote as similar voters did in 2022.
| Through Tuesday, Oct. 20 | Through Wednesday, Oct. 21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate: voters break 2 points more Republican than in 2022 | 49.2% to 51.8% | 49.3% to 51.8% |
| Senate: voters break as in 2022 | 51.2% to 53.8% | 51.3% to 53.8% |
| Senate: voters break 2 points more Democratic than in 2022 | 53.2% to 55.8% | 53.3% to 55.8% |
| Governor: voters split their tickets as in 2022 | 46.9% to 49.5% | 47.0% to 49.5% |
| Estimated Democratic lead among people who have voted early | about 210,000 votes | about 222,000 votes |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files, voter history and 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The estimated lead is the simplest way to see what the early vote could be worth. It applies our voter-profile estimates, which are set to match how Georgia’s early voters actually voted in the 2022 Senate race, to everyone who has voted so far. If they vote like similar voters did in 2022, about 222,000 more of them would vote for Ossoff than for his Republican opponent. For scale, Warnock led the 2022 early vote by about 255,000 votes when early voting ended, out of about 2.5 million early ballots. He lost Election Day by about 218,000 votes and won the two-party vote by about 38,000.
The estimate and the scenarios are separate calculations. The estimate comes straight from our model and covers only the people who have voted so far, including in Gwinnett. The scenarios apply the shift we measure to the whole 2022 early vote and then add Election Day. Partly because the first early voters lean more Democratic than later ones, and partly because the estimate includes Gwinnett, it implies a slightly more Democratic early vote than our early-vote scenarios do, so the two figures should not be combined.
Who is voting
The scenarios held because the mix of voters held. The chart below sorts each day’s early voters by the party primaries they had voted in through June 2022, the same cutoff for both years.
Far more of this year’s early voters have no party primary on record: 25.7% so far, against 15.2% at this point in 2022, and more than in 2022 on every day. Voters with only Republican primaries are 32.6% of early voters, against 40.2% in 2022, and a smaller share on every day. The share with only Democratic primaries is slightly lower than in 2022, 37.1% against 39.6%. By primary history, the change is fewer Republican primary voters, not more Democratic ones.
In both years, later voters include more people with a Republican-only primary history than the first ones did. On Tuesday and Wednesday this week they outnumbered voters with only Democratic primaries for the first time this year. But on every day except Sunday, when few counties offered voting, the balance between the two groups has been more Democratic than on the same day in 2022.
More of this year’s early voters have no primary record, and fewer have only Republican primaries
Share of early voters statewide by the party primaries they had voted in from 2016 through June 2022. “Both” means the voter had taken part in both parties’ primaries in different years. Days are matched by the number of days before Election Day; the top row also includes mail ballots returned before early voting began. Gwinnett is excluded. Sunday voting is limited to a few counties.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Cobb and Athens-Clarke: what their early electorates could mean
We applied the same scenario method to two Democratic-leaning counties whose early electorates are moving in opposite directions.
| Cobb | Athens-Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Warnock’s 2022 share of the two-party Senate vote | 58.4% | 72.5% |
| Senate scenario if voters break as in 2022 | 59.0% to 62.8% | 71.8% to 72.4% |
| Change in early voters’ leaning from 2022, voter-profile measure, through Tuesday | +4.6 points | −0.2 points |
| Same, through Wednesday | +4.4 points | −0.7 points |
| Change on the precinct measure, through Wednesday | +1.0 points | −0.2 points |
| Estimated Democratic lead among early voters, through Tuesday | about 24,700 votes | about 4,900 votes |
| Same, through Wednesday | about 26,600 votes | about 5,700 votes |
Cobb. Warnock won 58.4% of Cobb’s two-party vote in 2022. Its early voters this year lean 4.4 points more Democratic than at the same point in 2022 on our voter-profile measure, more than the statewide 3.3. If voters there break as similar voters did in 2022, Ossoff would get 59.0% to 62.8% of Cobb’s two-party vote. The shift slipped slightly with Wednesday’s ballots, from 4.6 points, and this week’s Cobb voters include more people with a Republican-only primary history than last week’s.
Athens-Clarke. Warnock won 72.5% in Athens-Clarke in 2022, and its early voters are still among the most Democratic in Georgia. But they now lean 0.7 points less Democratic than in 2022 on our voter-profile measure, from 0.2 points through Tuesday, and 0.2 points less on the precinct measure. The county ran one early voting site during the first week and opened three more on Monday, with a fifth due Saturday, as Flagpole reported, and this week’s voters include more people with a Republican-only primary history: 20%, against 14% of last week’s. If voters break as in 2022, Ossoff would get 71.8% to 72.4%, a little below Warnock. The county still adds to the Democratic lead: the estimated lead among its early voters rose on Wednesday to about 5,700 votes.
Athens is not alone. Chatham County (Savannah), Richmond County (Augusta) and Baldwin County (Milledgeville) also lean slightly less Democratic than in 2022 on both of our measures; with Athens-Clarke, they are the only counties with at least 5,000 early ballots that do. The University of Georgia’s Tate Student Center opens as an early voting site Oct. 27 to 29, according to the county’s schedule, which could change the mix in Athens again.