Two weeks before Election Day, the Georgians voting early look more Democratic than the early voters at the same point in 2022.
If Georgians vote the way similar voters did in 2022, that change would be worth about 1 to 3 points to Democrats statewide in the Senate race, enough to turn Raphael Warnock’s narrow 2022 win into a clearer lead for Jon Ossoff.
But Election Day voters lean more Republican, and they could close much of that gap, as they did in 2022.
The shift shows up in where ballots are coming from, in who is voting and in every metro Atlanta county, including Republican suburbs like Cherokee and Forsyth.
Early ballot records show who has voted, not how. The figures here describe the voters, not the votes, which are not counted until Election Day.
Explore daily counts by county and voter group on the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard.
Related analysis: The Atlanta suburbs are now driving Georgia’s early vote
What it could add up to
These are scenarios for the Senate race, not a forecast.
In 2022, Warnock won 50.5% of the two-party vote. If this year’s voters vote the way similar voters did in 2022, the change in who is voting early would put Ossoff at roughly 51% to 54%.
If voters lean 2 points more Republican than in 2022, Ossoff would be at roughly 49% to 52%. If they lean 2 points more Democratic, roughly 53% to 56%.
We started from the 2022 Senate result and changed three things:
- Who votes early. We raised the Democratic share of the early vote by the shift we measured in this year’s early voters, 1.1 to 3.3 points.
- Who votes on Election Day. We have no measure of this year’s Election Day voters, so we tried two cases: unchanged from 2022, or shifted as much as early voters. Election Day keeps its 2022 share of ballots, 35.9%.
- How people vote. We assumed voters break as similar voters did in 2022, then moved that 2 points in each direction.
If voters break as in 2022, Democrats would gain about 1 to 3 points over Warnock’s 2022 result
Democratic share of the two-party Senate vote under each scenario. Ranges span our measures of this year’s early electorate and the two Election Day cases. Election Day includes provisional ballots. Bars reach the middle of each range; whiskers mark its low and high ends; the gray line is the 2022 result.
| Democrat’s share of the two-party vote | 2022 actual (Warnock) | Voters break 2 points more Republican than in 2022 | Voters break as in 2022 | Voters break 2 points more Democratic than in 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early vote | 55.1% | 54.2% to 56.4% | 56.2% to 58.4% | 58.2% to 60.4% |
| Election Day | 42.1% | 40.1% to 43.4% | 42.1% to 45.4% | 44.1% to 47.4% |
| Overall | 50.5% | 49.2% to 51.8% | 51.2% to 53.8% | 53.2% to 55.8% |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The governor’s race could look different
These scenarios cover the Senate race. Voters do not always back the same party down the ballot. In 2022, Warnock won 50.5% of the two-party vote for Senate while Stacey Abrams won 46.2% for governor, on the same ballots. Abrams ran 4.0 points behind Warnock among early voters and 4.7 points behind on Election Day.
The table below applies that 2022 split to each scenario. If voters split their tickets this year as they did in 2022 and otherwise break as similar voters did, the Democratic candidate for governor would get roughly 46.9% to 49.5% of the two-party vote, short of a majority across that whole range. But the 2022 split reflected that year’s candidates, including an incumbent governor. This year’s race for governor has no incumbent, so voters may split differently, and the same is true for races further down the ballot.
If voters split their tickets as in 2022, the Democrat for governor would trail even where Ossoff leads
Democratic share of the two-party vote for governor under each Senate scenario, after applying the 2022 gap between Warnock and Abrams separately to early and Election Day ballots. Election Day includes provisional ballots. Bars reach the middle of each range; whiskers mark its low and high ends; the gray line is the 2022 result.
| Democrat’s share of the two-party vote for governor | 2022 actual (Abrams) | Voters break 2 points more Republican than in 2022 | Voters break as in 2022 | Voters break 2 points more Democratic than in 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early vote | 51.1% | 50.2% to 52.4% | 52.2% to 54.4% | 54.2% to 56.4% |
| Election Day | 37.4% | 35.4% to 38.7% | 37.4% to 40.7% | 39.4% to 42.7% |
| Overall | 46.2% | 44.9% to 47.5% | 46.9% to 49.5% | 48.9% to 51.5% |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The rest of this article breaks that range into its pieces: where this year’s early ballots are coming from, how much more Democratic-leaning the early electorate is on each of our measures, who the voters are, how the shift plays out across metro Atlanta, and why Election Day could change the picture.
By precinct: growth in Democratic areas, a drop in the most Republican ones
The first piece of that range is geography. The simplest way to see the change is to ask where this year’s early ballots are coming from. We sorted every early voter by how their precinct voted for president in 2024 and compared each group with the same point in 2022. Early voting has grown fastest in Democratic precincts, more slowly in competitive and Republican-leaning ones, and has fallen in the most Republican precincts.
Through Tuesday, Oct. 20, election offices had accepted 1,186,835 early ballots statewide. Outside Gwinnett, early ballots are up 3.7% over 2022. From precincts where Harris won 55% to 70% of the vote they are up 10.9%, and from precincts where she won 70% or more, 8.5%. From precincts where she got under 30%, they are down 4.0%.
Early ballots are down from the most Republican precincts and up most from Democratic ones
Change in accepted early ballots, Oct. 20, 2026 compared with Oct. 25, 2022, by the Democratic share of the 2024 presidential vote in each voter’s precinct. Gwinnett is excluded.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files and 2024 precinct results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Those growth rates differ sharply, but each group of precincts started from a large base, so together they move the overall mix of early voters by about two points. Voters from precincts Harris won with 55% or more are 42.3% of early voters this year, up from 40.2% in 2022, and voters from precincts where she got under 30% are 24.8%, down from 26.8%. Averaged over every early voter, that makes an electorate about 1.1 points more Democratic-leaning than in 2022, the most conservative of the three measures below.
Three measures, one direction
Precincts are a blunt tool: they give everyone on the same street the same value, whatever their own politics. To see past that, we also measured each early voter individually. We estimated how Democratic-leaning each early voter is in three ways and compared the average for this year’s early voters with the average for early voters at the same point in 2022, 14 days before Election Day. Each comparison uses the same yardstick for both years, so the change reflects who is voting rather than changes in the yardstick. This year’s early voters lean more Democratic on all three: by 3.3 percentage points on the voter-profile measure, which uses age, race, sex, county and past primaries; 1.9 points on demographics alone; and 1.1 points on the precinct measure.
This year’s early voters lean more Democratic on all three measures
Change in the average Democratic leaning of early voters, Oct. 20, 2026 compared with Oct. 25, 2022. Gwinnett is excluded; see below.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The voter-profile measure is the most detailed, and when we tested it on the 2022 election it matched each county’s early vote more closely than the other two. It also moves the most. The precinct measure gives every voter in a precinct the same value, so it misses differences among neighbors and moves the least, but it rests on actual votes rather than estimates. The demographic measure sits between them.
Fewer early voters with a Republican primary history
Why does the voter-profile measure move the most? Because it sees something the others cannot: the party primaries each voter has taken part in. That is where the clearest change shows up. Through 2022, 32.3% of this year’s early voters had voted only in Republican primaries, against 39.9% of early voters at this point in 2022. The share with only Democratic primaries fell less, from 40.4% to 38.0%. In 2022, early voters with only Democratic primaries outnumbered those with only Republican primaries 1.01 to 1; this year it is 1.18 to 1.
The share of early voters with only Republican primaries fell 7.6 points
Primary participation through June 2022, the same cutoff for both years. Gwinnett is excluded.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Who the voters without a primary history are
The other side of that change is a surge in early voters with no primary record at all. Sorted by primary history, the fastest-growing group of early voters is people who had never voted in a Democratic or Republican primary through 2022. There are far more of them this year, they include more young voters and voters of color than the same group in 2022, and many are new to Georgia’s rolls. Since 2022, the ones who have voted in a party primary have chosen Democratic ballots more than twice as often as Republican ones.
This year 275,586 early voters had no party primary on record through 2022, against 155,757 at this point in 2022. 29.4% of them registered after the 2022 election, and 5.9% first registered in the 12 months before Election Day, against 10.4% of the same group in 2022. White voters make up 45.8% of the group, down from 52.2%, and voters under 25 make up 13.2%, up from 10.2%. Of this year’s group, 30.9% have since voted in a Democratic primary, most recently, and 13.7% in a Republican primary; 55.4% still have no party primary on record.
Early voters with no primary history include more young voters and voters of color than in 2022
Early voters who had not voted in a Democratic or Republican primary from 2016 through June 2022. Gwinnett is excluded. Race and age are from the October 2026 voter file for both years. “Registered in the 12 months before Election Day” counts voters who first registered in Georgia after Nov. 8, 2021 (for 2022) or Nov. 3, 2025 (for 2026). The 2022 share runs higher partly because the primary cutoff, June 2022, falls inside that year’s window, so recent registrants in 2022 had little chance to vote in a primary.
| Share of early voters with no party primary through 2022 | 2022, through Oct. 25 | 2026, through Oct. 20 | Change, points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of voters | 155,757 | 275,586 | |
| Black | 31.7% | 33.8% | +2.1 |
| White | 52.2% | 45.8% | −6.3 |
| Hispanic | 3.0% | 5.6% | +2.6 |
| Asian | 3.4% | 4.1% | +0.7 |
| Other or unknown race | 9.7% | 10.7% | +1.0 |
| 18 to 24 | 10.2% | 13.2% | +3.0 |
| 25 to 34 | 11.7% | 12.2% | +0.5 |
| 35 to 54 | 32.5% | 28.3% | −4.1 |
| 55 to 64 | 21.8% | 19.5% | −2.3 |
| 65 and older | 23.8% | 26.6% | +2.8 |
| Women | 51.0% | 52.8% | +1.9 |
| Voted in person | 89.7% | 95.4% | +5.7 |
| Registered since the 2022 election | n/a | 29.4% | |
| Registered in the 12 months before Election Day | 10.4% | 5.9% | −4.5 |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Who is voting early
Those newer voters are part of a broader change in who is turning out early. This year’s early voters include a larger share of Black, Hispanic and Asian voters and a smaller share of white voters than at this point in 2022. Both the oldest and youngest groups grew slightly: voters 65 and older and voters under 45 each make up a larger share. Almost all of them have voted in person: mail and electronic ballots are 4.8% of early ballots, against 10.1% in 2022.
White voters are a smaller share of early voters than in 2022
Shares of accepted early ballots, Gwinnett excluded. Race and age are from the October 2026 voter file for both years.
| Share of early voters | 2022, through Oct. 25 | 2026, through Oct. 20 | Change, points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black | 32.2% | 34.1% | +1.9 |
| White | 57.9% | 53.7% | −4.3 |
| Hispanic | 1.4% | 2.5% | +1.1 |
| Asian | 1.4% | 1.9% | +0.5 |
| Women | 54.7% | 55.1% | +0.4 |
| Under 45 | 17.1% | 18.4% | +1.3 |
| 65 and older | 45.3% | 47.6% | +2.3 |
| Voted in person | 89.9% | 95.2% | +5.3 |
| Voted by mail or electronically | 10.1% | 4.8% | −5.3 |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter files; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Mail voters lean less Democratic than in 2022, by 3.2 points on the voter-profile measure, while in-person voters lean 4.4 points more Democratic. Because mail is a much smaller share of early ballots this year, the in-person shift outweighs it.
Metro Atlanta
The statewide pattern holds county by county. Every metro Atlanta county moved toward Democrats on both the voter-profile and precinct measures. The deep-blue core barely moved: DeKalb by 0.2 points and Clayton by 0.7, where early voters already lean heavily Democratic. The largest shifts are in suburban counties: Paulding (+7.8), Douglas (+7.1) and Henry (+6.2).
The largest shifts toward Democrats are in suburban counties
Change in early voters’ average Democratic leaning, Oct. 20, 2026 compared with Oct. 25, 2022, in percentage points. *Gwinnett is compared with all of its 2022 early voters.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter history; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Turnout growth tells a different story. Two of the region’s most Republican counties are among the fastest-growing: 27.9% more early ballots than at this point in 2022 in Cherokee and 17.9% more in Forsyth, along with 21.4% in Newton and 15.1% in Cobb, while Fulton is up 1.8%. Even in Cherokee and Forsyth, early voters lean more Democratic than in 2022, by 2.9 and 3.9 points on the voter-profile measure. Across the state, the mix of counties alone is 0.1 points less Democratic than in 2022, so the shift comes from who is voting within counties.
What to notice in the table:
- Cobb adds both more ballots and a sizable shift toward Democrats.
- Cherokee and Forsyth are among the fastest-growing, and their early voters lean less Republican than in 2022.
- Paulding is the only county here with fewer early ballots than in 2022, and it has the largest shift toward Democrats.
| County | Early ballots through Oct. 20 | Change from 2022 | Leaning change, voter profile (points) | Leaning change, precinct (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | 145,464 | +1.8% | +1.6 | +0.6 |
| DeKalb | 102,280 | +4.3% | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Cobb | 97,869 | +15.1% | +4.6 | +1.0 |
| Gwinnett* | 93,710 | n/a | +3.8 | +1.3 |
| Cherokee | 35,941 | +27.9% | +2.9 | +0.8 |
| Henry | 33,717 | +12.1% | +6.2 | +1.0 |
| Clayton | 31,994 | +4.3% | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Forsyth | 29,724 | +17.9% | +3.9 | +1.0 |
| Hall | 23,000 | +1.9% | +4.4 | +1.0 |
| Fayette | 20,673 | +7.0% | +4.7 | +0.8 |
| Coweta | 18,683 | +6.9% | +4.5 | +0.8 |
| Douglas | 18,604 | +8.7% | +7.1 | +1.7 |
| Paulding | 17,339 | −7.1% | +7.8 | +1.0 |
| Newton | 13,252 | +21.4% | +4.3 | +1.1 |
| Rockdale | 12,980 | +6.4% | +4.6 | +1.1 |
*Gwinnett: the state’s 2022 ballot records are missing most of the county’s in-person early ballots from Oct. 24, 2022 on, so its change in ballots is not shown and its leaning is compared with all of its 2022 early voters.
Election Day is a different electorate
Everything so far describes the people who have already voted. The scenarios at the top depend just as much on the people who have not, and history says they will look different. In each of Georgia’s last three general elections, early voters leaned more Democratic than the voters who waited for Election Day. What changed is how big that gap was. In 2020 and 2022 it was wide. In 2024 it nearly closed: mail voting, which had leaned heavily Democratic, fell sharply, and Election Day voters were much less Republican than in 2020 and 2022. Which of those patterns this year follows will decide how much the early vote tells us.
The early vote leaned far more Democratic than Election Day in 2020 and 2022, but not in 2024
Democratic candidate’s share of the two-party vote in the top race on the ballot, by how the ballot was cast. Early ballots include in person and by mail. Election Day here excludes provisional ballots; the scenario tables include them, so 2022’s Election Day share appears there as 42.1%.
| Election | Democrat’s share, early ballots | Democrat’s share, Election Day | Gap, points | Election Day share of all ballots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020, Senate (Ossoff) | 51.6% | 38.4% | 13.2 | 19.7% |
| 2022, Senate (Warnock) | 55.1% | 42.0% | 13.1 | 35.9% |
| 2024, President (Harris) | 49.7% | 46.3% | 3.3 | 23.3% |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
In 2022, the last midterm, Warnock won 55.1% of the two-party early vote and 42.0% on Election Day, a gap of 13.1 points, and Election Day was 35.9% of all ballots. In 2024 the gap was 3.3 points and Election Day was 23.3% of ballots.
Will the gap look more like 2022 or 2024?
Signs it may be closer to 2024:
- Some voters with Republican primary histories who used to wait are now voting early. 110,745 of this year’s early voters outside Gwinnett, 10.1%, voted on Election Day in 2022, and more of them have Republican primary histories than Democratic ones (38.9% against 29.4%).
- Mail voting, the most Democratic way to vote in 2022, has shrunk to 4.8% of early ballots, from 10.1%.
Signs it may be closer to 2022:
- This is a midterm, and in the last midterm the gap was 13.1 points.
- The early electorate is more Democratic-leaning than in 2022 despite taking in those voters. That may mean many Republicans who will vote are still waiting for Election Day, or that Democrats are turning out early at a higher rate than in 2022; the records cannot yet tell which.
If the gap is as wide as in 2022, Republicans can make up a large early-vote deficit on Election Day. If it is as narrow as in 2024, the early vote is a much better guide to the final result. That uncertainty is why the scenarios at the top of this article give a range rather than a single number.
The gap varies by county. In 2022 it was widest in Newton and narrowest in Forsyth; in 2024 it shrank in all but Clayton, and in Cherokee, Forsyth, Paulding and Hall Election Day voters leaned more Democratic than early voters.
| County | Gap, 2022 (points) | Gap, 2024 (points) | Election Day share, 2022 | Election Day share, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newton | 21.9 | 9.2 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| Rockdale | 13.8 | 9.9 | 27.6% | 20.9% |
| Henry | 12.4 | 3.3 | 28.0% | 18.8% |
| Fayette | 12.0 | 3.5 | 31.5% | 16.8% |
| Gwinnett | 10.5 | 4.6 | 35.8% | 23.5% |
| Cobb | 10.2 | 4.3 | 33.9% | 21.1% |
| Coweta | 10.2 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 22.8% |
| DeKalb | 9.0 | 8.5 | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| Douglas | 7.0 | 1.8 | 29.5% | 21.5% |
| Paulding | 6.7 | -2.0 | 33.9% | 22.6% |
| Cherokee | 6.7 | -0.5 | 38.3% | 22.0% |
| Fulton | 5.8 | 1.5 | 27.0% | 17.2% |
| Hall | 4.2 | -4.5 | 34.1% | 20.4% |
| Clayton | 3.7 | 3.9 | 27.5% | 23.4% |
| Forsyth | 2.6 | -1.7 | 31.8% | 16.0% |