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Georgia elections · 2026 State House

Georgia House competitive districts

Ten Republican-held seats that the published state model rates competitive for November 2026. The page answers three questions in order: why each seat is competitive, whether it moved between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, and what kind of place it is.

Filing status comes from the ratings snapshot, not from the 2024 election record. 10 of 10 had both major parties filed for 2026 as of 2026-07-27. The ratings and probabilities are copied from the model output and are never recomputed here.

Ratings as of
2026-07-27
ACS windows
2017-2021 and 2020-2024
House boundary
2023-12-31
Dataset generated
2026-08-12T19:16:49+00:00

Model version baseline-uniform-swing-0.2.0. Presidential results are reaggregated to the 2023-12-31 House map. ACS levels use the 2020-2024 window; historical changes compare it with 2017-2021.

+0.04 pts

Mean 2020–24 change

n=10

8

Moved under 2 points

of 10

3

Drew no Democrat in 2024

of 10

4

Below 2020 coverage floor

of 10

Where are the competitive districts?

Select a district on the map or in its accessible list to open the matching scorecard details below.

Modeled Democratic win probability

  • 20%–29%
  • 30%–49%
  • 50%–69%
  • 70% or higher

Competitive district data

  • HD-44 — 25% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-48 — 40% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-53 — 59% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-99 — 71% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-105 — 77% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-120 — 20% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-147 — 35% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-151 — 57% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-154 — 87% modeled Democratic win probability
  • HD-164 — 23% modeled Democratic win probability

Question 1

Why is this seat competitive?

Modelled Democratic win probability against the Republican margin in the 2024 State House race. The three seats that drew no Democrat in 2024 have no margin and sit in their own lane. Those legislative margins are not comparable to presidential shares.

HD-151: an independent qualified for 2026, which this two-party model cannot represent. HD-147: its rating is a rounding boundary artifact, not a substantive break between categories.

Model probability versus 2024 State House marginSeven districts are positioned by their 2024 Republican House margin. HD-151, HD-154 and HD-164 sit in a separate no-Democrat-in-2024 lane because no two-party margin exists.No Democrat in 202420%40%60%80%0510152025Republican margin in 2024 State House race (points)Model P(Dem)HD-154: 87% P(Dem); no Democrat in the 2024 House raceHD-105: 77% P(Dem); 0.3-point Republican margin in 2024HD-99: 71% P(Dem); 2.1-point Republican margin in 2024HD-53: 59% P(Dem); 3.8-point Republican margin in 2024HD-151: 57% P(Dem); no Democrat in the 2024 House raceHD-48: 40% P(Dem); 9.7-point Republican margin in 2024HD-147: 35% P(Dem); 13.8-point Republican margin in 2024HD-44: 25% P(Dem); 13.7-point Republican margin in 2024HD-164: 23% P(Dem); no Democrat in the 2024 House raceHD-120: 20% P(Dem); 22.6-point Republican margin in 2024HD-154HD-105HD-99HD-53HD-151HD-48HD-147HD-44HD-164HD-120

Question 2

Is it moving?

Democratic two-party presidential share in 2020 and 2024, sorted by the 2024 share. Hollow 2024 points mark rows below the 2020 coverage floor; the actual coverage is printed on each affected row. The ten districts moved a mean of +0.04 points (n=10), so these are close seats, not a trend typology.

20202024Hollow 2024 point = coverage flag
2020 and 2024 Democratic two-party presidential shareTen district rows sorted by 2024 share. A reference rule marks 50 percent. Four rows print their incomplete 2020 precinct coverage.40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%50%HD-53HD-53 2020: 54.7% Democratic two-party shareHD-53 2024: 53.5% Democratic two-party shareHD-99HD-99 2020: 52.8% Democratic two-party shareHD-99 2024: 53.0% Democratic two-party shareHD-105HD-105 2020: 50.0% Democratic two-party shareHD-105 2024: 51.3% Democratic two-party shareHD-154HD-154 2020: 47.5% Democratic two-party shareHD-154 2024: 50.9% Democratic two-party share; 2020 coverage 86.9%2020 coverage 86.9%HD-48HD-48 2020: 51.4% Democratic two-party shareHD-48 2024: 50.5% Democratic two-party shareHD-120HD-120 2020: 47.5% Democratic two-party shareHD-120 2024: 46.6% Democratic two-party shareHD-151HD-151 2020: 49.0% Democratic two-party shareHD-151 2024: 46.3% Democratic two-party share; 2020 coverage 87.8%2020 coverage 87.8%HD-44HD-44 2020: 46.0% Democratic two-party shareHD-44 2024: 45.6% Democratic two-party shareHD-147HD-147 2020: 43.9% Democratic two-party shareHD-147 2024: 45.2% Democratic two-party share; 2020 coverage 92.7%2020 coverage 92.7%HD-164HD-164 2020: 43.9% Democratic two-party shareHD-164 2024: 44.1% Democratic two-party share; 2020 coverage 89.5%2020 coverage 89.5%

Registered-voter-file change

How the registered-voter files changed

All ten files became older between the two snapshots: the share ages 18–34 declined while the share ages 65 and older increased. Race categories moved in different directions and by different amounts across the districts.

Registered-voter file, Oct. 31, 2024 to Apr. 20, 2026

Age composition changed in every district

The 18–34 share fell and the 65-and-older share rose in all ten registered-voter files. Each dot is the percentage-point change in that age group’s share of the district file.

Registered-voter file, Oct. 31, 2024 to Apr. 20, 2026

Age 18–34Age 65+
−2.50−1.250+1.25+2.50HD-44HD-44, age 18–34: −1.74 percentage pointsHD-44, age 65+: +1.85 percentage points18–34 −1.74 pts; 65+ +1.85 ptsHD-48HD-48, age 18–34: −1.38 percentage pointsHD-48, age 65+: +1.99 percentage points18–34 −1.38 pts; 65+ +1.99 ptsHD-53HD-53, age 18–34: −1.72 percentage pointsHD-53, age 65+: +1.42 percentage points18–34 −1.72 pts; 65+ +1.42 ptsHD-99HD-99, age 18–34: −1.45 percentage pointsHD-99, age 65+: +2.08 percentage points18–34 −1.45 pts; 65+ +2.08 ptsHD-105HD-105, age 18–34: −1.05 percentage pointsHD-105, age 65+: +1.81 percentage points18–34 −1.05 pts; 65+ +1.81 ptsHD-120HD-120, age 18–34: −2.25 percentage pointsHD-120, age 65+: +1.98 percentage points18–34 −2.25 pts; 65+ +1.98 ptsHD-147HD-147, age 18–34: −1.27 percentage pointsHD-147, age 65+: +1.79 percentage points18–34 −1.27 pts; 65+ +1.79 ptsHD-151HD-151, age 18–34: −1.56 percentage pointsHD-151, age 65+: +1.77 percentage points18–34 −1.56 pts; 65+ +1.77 ptsHD-154HD-154, age 18–34: −0.76 percentage pointsHD-154, age 65+: +1.11 percentage points18–34 −0.76 pts; 65+ +1.11 ptsHD-164HD-164, age 18–34: −1.10 percentage pointsHD-164, age 65+: +1.28 percentage points18–34 −1.10 pts; 65+ +1.28 ptsNo changeChange in share (percentage points)

Racial composition shifted differently by district

Each category is shown separately because the district patterns are not uniform. Unknown race remains visible because its share rose in every district and limits comparisons among the named categories.

Registered-voter file, Oct. 31, 2024 to Apr. 20, 2026

WhiteBlackHispanicAsianUnknown race
−2.50−1.250+1.25+2.50HD-44HD-44, White: +0.21 percentage pointsHD-44, Black: −0.04 percentage pointsHD-44, Hispanic: +0.44 percentage pointsHD-44, Asian: +0.29 percentage pointsHD-44, Unknown race: +0.50 percentage pointsWhite +0.21; Black −0.04; Hispanic +0.44; Asian +0.29; Unknown race +0.50HD-48HD-48, White: −0.60 percentage pointsHD-48, Black: +0.11 percentage pointsHD-48, Hispanic: +0.50 percentage pointsHD-48, Asian: +1.10 percentage pointsHD-48, Unknown race: +0.60 percentage pointsWhite −0.60; Black +0.11; Hispanic +0.50; Asian +1.10; Unknown race +0.60HD-53HD-53, White: +0.31 percentage pointsHD-53, Black: +0.43 percentage pointsHD-53, Hispanic: +0.38 percentage pointsHD-53, Asian: +0.31 percentage pointsHD-53, Unknown race: +0.61 percentage pointsWhite +0.31; Black +0.43; Hispanic +0.38; Asian +0.31; Unknown race +0.61HD-99HD-99, White: −1.81 percentage pointsHD-99, Black: +0.45 percentage pointsHD-99, Hispanic: +0.19 percentage pointsHD-99, Asian: +2.10 percentage pointsHD-99, Unknown race: +0.64 percentage pointsWhite −1.81; Black +0.45; Hispanic +0.19; Asian +2.10; Unknown race +0.64HD-105HD-105, White: −2.42 percentage pointsHD-105, Black: +1.79 percentage pointsHD-105, Hispanic: +0.56 percentage pointsHD-105, Asian: +1.24 percentage pointsHD-105, Unknown race: +0.61 percentage pointsWhite −2.42; Black +1.79; Hispanic +0.56; Asian +1.24; Unknown race +0.61HD-120HD-120, White: +0.97 percentage pointsHD-120, Black: −0.00 percentage pointsHD-120, Hispanic: +0.30 percentage pointsHD-120, Asian: +0.12 percentage pointsHD-120, Unknown race: +0.29 percentage pointsWhite +0.97; Black −0.00; Hispanic +0.30; Asian +0.12; Unknown race +0.29HD-147HD-147, White: −1.27 percentage pointsHD-147, Black: +1.92 percentage pointsHD-147, Hispanic: +0.30 percentage pointsHD-147, Asian: +0.15 percentage pointsHD-147, Unknown race: +0.53 percentage pointsWhite −1.27; Black +1.92; Hispanic +0.30; Asian +0.15; Unknown race +0.53HD-151HD-151, White: +0.06 percentage pointsHD-151, Black: +0.63 percentage pointsHD-151, Hispanic: +0.13 percentage pointsHD-151, Asian: −0.04 percentage pointsHD-151, Unknown race: +0.39 percentage pointsWhite +0.06; Black +0.63; Hispanic +0.13; Asian −0.04; Unknown race +0.39HD-154HD-154, White: −0.03 percentage pointsHD-154, Black: +0.41 percentage pointsHD-154, Hispanic: +0.08 percentage pointsHD-154, Asian: +0.00 percentage pointsHD-154, Unknown race: +0.35 percentage pointsWhite −0.03; Black +0.41; Hispanic +0.08; Asian +0.00; Unknown race +0.35HD-164HD-164, White: −1.09 percentage pointsHD-164, Black: +1.28 percentage pointsHD-164, Hispanic: +0.39 percentage pointsHD-164, Asian: +0.47 percentage pointsHD-164, Unknown race: +0.73 percentage pointsWhite −1.09; Black +1.28; Hispanic +0.39; Asian +0.47; Unknown race +0.73Change in share (percentage points)

District changes

Counts are net changes in voter-file records; age and race values are percentage-point changes in each category’s share.

DistrictTotal fileActive file18–3465+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianUnknown race
HD-44−1,487−90−1.74+1.85+0.21−0.04+0.44+0.29+0.50
HD-48−1,869+49−1.38+1.99−0.60+0.11+0.50+1.10+0.60
HD-53−2,338−123−1.72+1.42+0.31+0.43+0.38+0.31+0.61
HD-99−647+618−1.45+2.08−1.81+0.45+0.19+2.10+0.64
HD-105+855+2,118−1.05+1.81−2.42+1.79+0.56+1.24+0.61
HD-120−1,110+381−2.25+1.98+0.97−0.00+0.30+0.12+0.29
HD-147+389+2,488−1.27+1.79−1.27+1.92+0.30+0.15+0.53
HD-151−1,349+322−1.56+1.77+0.06+0.63+0.13−0.04+0.39
HD-154−2,329−156−0.76+1.11−0.03+0.41+0.08+0.00+0.35
HD-164+148+2,181−1.10+1.28−1.09+1.28+0.39+0.47+0.73

Question 3

What kind of place is it?

Six ACS measures show the range across the ten districts. Every strip has its own labelled scale. Dots are deliberately not connected: these measures describe heterogeneous places and do not divide the board into district types.

Median household income

HD-44: $108,261HD-48: $131,788HD-53: $127,662HD-99: $110,912HD-105: $107,688HD-120: $74,763HD-147: $80,949HD-151: $49,773HD-154: $44,860HD-164: $88,496$44,860$131,788

College attainment

HD-44: 47.2%HD-48: 65.5%HD-53: 72.5%HD-99: 58.9%HD-105: 40.6%HD-120: 45.9%HD-147: 32.5%HD-151: 19.8%HD-154: 16.2%HD-164: 38.6%16.2%72.5%

Poverty rate

HD-44: 7.1%HD-48: 6.0%HD-53: 6.9%HD-99: 7.2%HD-105: 7.6%HD-120: 13.0%HD-147: 8.6%HD-151: 22.4%HD-154: 24.7%HD-164: 8.8%6.0%24.7%

Residents per square mile

HD-44: 2,284HD-48: 2,275HD-53: 1,973HD-99: 2,216HD-105: 1,817HD-120: 363HD-147: 877HD-151: 27HD-154: 24HD-164: 186242,284

Mobile-home share

HD-44: 0.6%HD-48: 0.1%HD-53: 0.2%HD-99: 0.3%HD-105: 1.7%HD-120: 7.3%HD-147: 7.7%HD-151: 23.1%HD-154: 22.9%HD-164: 6.8%0.1%23.1%

Households with no vehicle

HD-44: 1.4%HD-48: 4.9%HD-53: 5.5%HD-99: 2.1%HD-105: 2.1%HD-120: 4.5%HD-147: 3.9%HD-151: 8.5%HD-154: 13.3%HD-164: 3.5%1.4%13.3%

District scorecard

Six fields answer the same questions in district-number order. 2026 status is a filing fact from the ratings snapshot; 2024 result is a separate election record.

Income level and change use different estimators. median_hh_income level and change use different estimators and cannot be subtracted from one another. The level is the 2020-2024 grouped median rebuilt from B19001. The change applies a household-weighted mean of published block-group medians to both the 2017-2021 and the 2020-2024 vintage, because B19001 was never ingested for 2017-2021 and the raw difference of the two published levels points the wrong way in three of these ten districts.
Ten Republican-held Georgia House districts, with 2026 filing status, state rating, model probability, presidential change and 2024 House result.
District2026 statusState ratingP(Dem)2020–24 change2024 result
HD-44Both parties filedLean R25%-0.5 pts
R +13.7 ptsDon L. Parsons over Danielle Bell
HD-48Both parties filedToss-up40%-0.9 pts
R +9.7 ptsScott Hilton over Laura Murvartian
HD-53Both parties filedToss-up59%-1.2 pts
R +3.8 ptsDeborah Silcox over Susie Greenberg
HD-99Both parties filedLean D71%+0.1 pts
R +2.1 ptsMatt Reeves over Michelle Kang
HD-105Both parties filedLean D77%+1.4 pts
R +0.3 ptsSandy Donatucci over Farooq Mughal
HD-120Both parties filedLean R20%-0.8 pts
R +22.6 ptsHouston Gaines over Andrew Ferguson
HD-147Both parties filedLean R35%Boundary artifact+1.3 pts2020 coverage 92.7%
R +13.8 ptsBethany Ballard over Ariel Phillips
HD-151Both parties filedToss-up57%Independent qualified-2.7 pts2020 coverage 87.8%
No Democrat in 2024Mike Cheokas (R), 18,992 votes
HD-154Both parties filedLikely D87%+3.4 pts2020 coverage 86.9%
No Democrat in 2024Gerald E. Greene (R), 20,680 votes
HD-164Both parties filedLean R23%+0.2 pts2020 coverage 89.5%
No Democrat in 2024Ron Stephens (R), 24,073 votes

What this page does not say

  • It does not identify voter behavior. ACS measures describe district residents, not registered voters or the people who turned out. District-level associations do not say who changed a vote.
  • It does not label these seats as trending. The spine has two presidential points, 2020 and 2024. Four rows print incomplete 2020 coverage, and 2016 is excluded from the series.
  • It does not make the 2024 House margin a measure of lean.An uncontested result measures ballot access. House margins and presidential shares use different elections and are not comparable.
  • It does not turn model output into a 2026 forecast.The baseline is two-party and omits candidates, fundraising, incumbency and other 2026 conditions. It cannot represent the independent in HD-151.
  • It does not divide the board into types. The ten districts span wide economic and demographic ranges, and the within-board evidence supports no typology or causal explanation.
  • It does not report real-dollar change. Dollar figures are nominal. Income level and income change use different estimators and cannot be subtracted from one another.

Read the accompanyingGeorgia House competitive districts articleor theall-district legislative ratings explorer.