Georgia's Ten Competitive Republican House Seats

Takeaways

Ten Republican-held Georgia House districts are rated competitive for November 2026, with Democratic win probabilities ranging from 20% in HD-120 to 87% in HD-154. HD-151, HD-154, and HD-164 drew no Democratic candidate in the 2024 House election, but all ten are listed as contested for 2026 as of July 27, 2026.

The seven 2024 contested races ranged from HD-105’s 80-vote, 0.3-point Republican win to HD-120’s 22.6-point Republican win. An unopposed 2024 result records ballot access in that election. It does not measure the statewide-race lean behind the rating.

State rating

Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R

The 2024 ballot did not define the ratings

The board combines two distinct pieces of evidence. The House result shows whether both major parties appeared on the 2024 ballot and, when they did, the winning margin. The rating carries a district’s statewide voting record into the expected 2026 political environment.

That distinction matters most in the chart’s separate no-Democrat-in-2024 lane. HD-151’s Toss-up rating and 57% Democratic probability come from a two-party model, so they do not represent the independent who qualified for 2026. HD-147’s Lean R label is a rounding boundary artifact rather than a substantive break between categories. State House margins also are not comparable to presidential shares.

Question 1

Why is this seat competitive?

Modelled Democratic win probability against the Republican margin in the 2024 State House race. The three seats that drew no Democrat in 2024 have no margin and sit in their own lane. Those legislative margins are not comparable to presidential shares.

HD-151: an independent qualified for 2026, which this two-party model cannot represent. HD-147: its rating is a rounding boundary artifact, not a substantive break between categories.

These districts barely moved from 2020 to 2024

Across the ten districts, the mean change was +0.04 percentage points (n=10) in Democratic two-party presidential share. Eight of 10 changed by less than 2 points. On this two-election measure, five moved Democratic and five moved Republican.

That split supports a limited conclusion: the board contains seats that were already close, not a shared trend. The dumbbell chart keeps the two presidential endpoints visible rather than turning a near-zero average into a directional story.

Question 2

Is it moving?

Democratic two-party presidential share in 2020 and 2024, sorted by the 2024 share. Hollow 2024 points mark rows below the 2020 coverage floor; the actual coverage is printed on each affected row. The ten districts moved a mean of +0.04 points (n=10), so these are close seats, not a trend typology.

20202024Hollow 2024 point = coverage flag

The board contains very different kinds of places

The resident profiles span $44,860 to $131,788 in median household income, 16.2% to 72.5% college attainment, and 24 to 2,284 residents per square mile. Those ranges describe a varied group, not a single kind of competitive district. They also do not establish that any characteristic caused a district’s political movement.

The evidence has clear limits

The movement comparison uses only the 2020 and 2024 presidential endpoints. Its 2020 precinct coverage falls below the 95% floor for HD-147 (92.7%), HD-151 (87.8%), HD-154 (86.9%), and HD-164 (89.5%). Those four rows are flagged in the chart rather than treated as equally complete.

American Community Survey measures describe residents, not the electorate, and the income figures are nominal. The ratings do not incorporate candidate-specific factors such as fundraising or incumbency, while their two-party structure cannot represent HD-151’s independent. The complete district records, field definitions, and provenance are available in the competitive House data explorer.

Ratings and 2026 filing status as of July 27, 2026.