A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll finds Jon Ossoff ahead in the Senate race and a close race for governor, in line with what Georgia’s early vote has suggested.
The poll’s Senate result is just above our early-vote scenario if voters vote as in 2022, and its result for governor falls inside it.
One poll cannot prove our assumptions right. Our scenarios are not forecasts, and Election Day could still erase much of the early edge.
We moved this update up two days because of the new poll. It uses ballots through Sunday, Oct. 25, and follows our Oct. 25 analysis. Unlike our earlier editions, it includes Gwinnett County, with an estimate for its 2022 ballots missing from the state’s records, so some figures differ slightly from theirs. Our next update will still be published Wednesday, Oct. 28. For daily turnout by county, see the Georgia Early Voting Dashboard. Ballot records show who has voted, not how. No votes are counted until Election Day.
What the poll found
The AJC poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, reached 1,000 likely Georgia voters by phone from Oct. 7 to 15. Six of its nine days of interviews came before in-person early voting began Oct. 13. Likely voters were people who had voted in the 2022 or 2024 general election or the 2026 primary and said they would vote this year, so first-time voters fall outside the poll. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
- Senate: Ossoff 47.7%, Republican Mike Collins 40.3%, undecided 11.7%.
- Governor: Republican Rick Jackson 46.4%, Bottoms 45.0%, undecided 7.9%.
- Enthusiasm: 67.9% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about their candidates, against 47.7% of Republicans.
Among respondents who chose one of the two major candidates, the two-party vote our scenarios also use, Ossoff has 54.2% and Bottoms 49.2%.
The poll and our scenarios
Our scenarios start from the 2022 Senate result, Warnock’s 50.5% of the two-party vote, and adjust it for how much more Democratic this year’s early voters look than 2022’s. They assume the rest of early voting looks like the first two weeks, that Election Day voters are either the same as in 2022 or shifted as much as early voters, and that Election Day keeps its 2022 share of the vote. They are not forecasts, and different turnout or voting could put the result outside them.
If voters vote as in 2022, Ossoff would get 51.3% to 53.9%. The poll’s 54.2% is 0.3 points above that range and inside our scenario where voters are 2 points more Democratic than in 2022. Our approximate margin of error for the poll’s two-party share is 3.3 points, or 50.9% to 57.5%, which covers our whole as-in-2022 range. If the poll’s undecided voters broke two to one for Collins, Ossoff would get about 51.8%, also inside that range.
For governor, the poll shows no clear leader. Our as-in-2022 scenarios, which assume voters split their tickets as in 2022, put Bottoms behind, at 47.0% to 49.6%, with the poll’s 49.2% near the top. In our scenario where voters are 2 points more Democratic, she gets 49.0% to 51.6%. The poll’s tables do not show how many people back candidates of different parties, but Ossoff’s 5.0-point edge over Bottoms is close to Warnock’s 4.3-point edge over Stacey Abrams in 2022.
The poll is just above our as-in-2022 Senate range and near the top of our governor range
Democratic share of the two-party vote. The poll’s dot is its result among respondents who chose a major candidate; the line marks our approximate 95% margin of error for that share, about 3.3 points for the Senate race and 3.2 for governor. The dashed line marks 50%. Our scenario bars show selected assumptions, not probabilities: they cover our different measures of this year’s early voters and two cases for Election Day, and the governor scenarios assume voters split their tickets as in 2022. Scenarios use ballots through Oct. 25.
Source: AJC/UGA poll, Oct. 7 to 15, 2026; Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The poll’s race and age results, applied to early voters
The published poll does not report how people who have already voted plan to vote. We applied a model built from its results by race and by age to early voters statewide and to 2022’s early voters at the same point, with an estimate for Gwinnett ballots missing from the state’s 2022 records.
The early vote so far is less white and older than the poll’s likely voters: 33.4% of this year’s early voters are Black, against 28.9% of the poll’s likely voters and 31.1% of 2022’s early voters. Early voters need not look like all voters, so this does not mean the poll’s mix is wrong.
Early voters are more likely than the poll’s likely voters to be Black or 65 and older
Race and age of the poll’s weighted sample and of early voters statewide. For 2022, about 56,000 Gwinnett ballots missing from the state’s records are estimated. Early voters of unknown race or age, about 1% in each year, are left out. The voter file’s “other” category may not match the poll’s.
| Share of voters | AJC poll’s likely voters | 2022 early voters, through Oct. 30 (Gwinnett partly estimated) | 2026 early voters, through Oct. 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black | 28.9% | 31.1% | 33.4% |
| White | 63.6% | 58.5% | 53.6% |
| Other races | 7.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% |
| 18 to 29 | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| 30 to 44 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 13.6% |
| 45 to 64 | 38.0% | 39.3% | 35.3% |
| 65 and older | 31.9% | 40.3% | 42.7% |
Source: AJC/UGA poll; Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter files; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Among Black respondents who chose Ossoff or Collins, 97% chose Ossoff; among those 65 and older, 41% did. A larger Black share helps Ossoff and an older electorate helps Collins. With both in the model, this year’s early voters come out at about 56% for Ossoff and 2022’s early voters at the same point at 54.4%, 1.6 points less. For governor, the difference is 2.0 points. These are estimates built from the poll, not measures of how early voters voted.
The 1.6-point difference is smaller than our own demographic measure, which uses age, race, sex and county and puts this year’s early voters 2.3 points more Democratic than 2022’s. Our voter-profile measure, which also counts which party primaries people voted in, shows 3.4 points. The published poll has no comparable breakdown by primary history, so it cannot check that part.
A model built from the poll puts this year’s early voters more Democratic than 2022’s
Democratic share of the two-party vote from a model of the poll’s results by race and age, applied to early voters statewide with known race and age; 2022 includes an estimate for missing Gwinnett ballots. Blue cells lean Democratic, red Republican, darker further from an even split. These are estimates, not counts.
| Democrat’s share of the two-party vote | Senate (Ossoff) | Governor (Bottoms) |
|---|---|---|
| AJC poll, two-party share | 54.2% | 49.2% |
| Model applied to 2022 early voters, through Oct. 30, 2022 | 54.4% | 50.1% |
| Model applied to 2026 early voters, through Oct. 25 | 56.0% | 52.1% |
| Difference, 2026 minus 2022 early voters | +1.6 points | +2.0 points |
Source: AJC/UGA poll; Georgia Secretary of State ballot records and voter files; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
The poll-based figure for this year’s early voters, about 56%, is below our own model’s 58.5% for all early voters statewide, which covers a slightly different group of voters. Our model is set to match how Georgia’s early voters actually voted in 2022, when they were far more Democratic than Election Day voters; a poll of all likely voters mixes the two. These data cannot tell which figure is closer.
What changed since Saturday
Only some counties held early voting on Sunday, Oct. 25. Statewide, 28,343 early ballots were returned on Sunday, against about 26,500 on the matching Sunday in 2022, a figure that includes an estimate for Gwinnett. If Sunday’s voters vote as our model assumes, including our assumptions for voters with no primary history, 76% would vote for the Democrat in a two-way race. That raises our estimated Democratic lead among everyone who has voted early to about 295,000 votes, from about 281,000. It is an estimate, not a count. No scenario moved by more than a tenth of a point.
Sunday’s ballots barely moved the scenarios
Each column compares this year with the same number of days before Election Day in 2022. Figures through Saturday are recalculated from the latest ballot records, which can include ballots accepted or updated since, so they can differ slightly from our Oct. 25 analysis. All figures include Gwinnett; its 2022 ballots missing from the state’s records are estimated.
| Through Saturday, Oct. 24 | Through Sunday, Oct. 25 | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate, if voters vote as in 2022 | 51.3% to 53.9% | 51.3% to 53.9% |
| Governor, if voters split their tickets as in 2022 | 47.0% to 49.6% | 47.0% to 49.6% |
| Estimated Democratic lead among people who have voted early | about 281,000 votes | about 295,000 votes |
| How much more Democratic early voters look than in 2022, voter-profile measure | +3.4 points | +3.4 points |
| Same, demographics only | +2.3 points | +2.3 points |
| Same, neighborhood measure | +1.2 points | +1.2 points |
Source: Georgia Secretary of State ballot records, voter files, voter history and 2022 certified results; Civic Forge Solutions analysis.
Election Day is still the biggest unknown
In 2022, Warnock won 55.1% of the two-party early vote and 42.0% on Election Day, a gap of 13.1 points. In 2024 the gap between early and Election Day voters for president was 3.3 points. If this year’s gap looks like 2022’s, Republicans can make up a large early deficit on Election Day. The poll, which covers both kinds of voters, puts Ossoff ahead overall.