Georgia 2026 legislative ratings

Ratings for all 236 seats in the Georgia General Assembly. 155 are contested and modelled; 81 were decided at the March qualifying deadline when only one major party filed. Each district gets two ratings: one for how it votes for the legislature, and one for how it votes for federal office.

Ratings as of 2026-07-27. Every rating is model output; an editor sets the final rating and may override it.

The contested field, General Assembly

State-office rating across the 155 contested seats. The 81 uncontested seats are held out below, because a seat with one filer is a settled fact rather than a modelled probability.

Decided at qualifying: 81 seats (50 with only a Democrat filed, 31 with only a Republican). These are not modelled and carry no probability.

The same district, two ratings, General Assembly

Each of the 34 competitive seats plotted at its state-office probability against its federal lean. Points above the diagonal vote more Democratic for federal office than for the legislature. The federal axis is a partisan-lean measure, not a forecast of any federal race.

Probabilities against the rating bands, General Assembly

All 155 contested seats at their state-office probability, over the bands the category labels come from. 11 sit less than one margin point from another category, so the labels are cut finer than the evidence behind them. Vertical position carries no meaning.

Safe R
Likely R
Lean R
Toss-up
Lean D
Likely D
Safe D

Every district

Modelled seats

28 of 119 contested State House seats. Swing is the margin points of statewide movement that would change the state rating category. Click any column heading to sort.

Modelled state and federal ratings by district

HD-50	Dem	95%	Likely D	>99%	Safe D	0.4
HD-150	Dem	92%	Likely D	98%	Safe D	2.2
HD-145	Dem	92%	Likely D	98%	Safe D	2.0
HD-154	Rep	87%	Likely D	95%	Safe D	2.7
HD-108	Dem	86%	Likely D	99%	Safe D	2.4
HD-105	Rep	77%	Lean D	95%	Safe D	1.1
HD-99	Rep	71%	Lean D	98%	Safe D	1.5
HD-128	Dem	66%	Lean D	78%	Lean D	0.2
HD-53	Rep	59%	Toss-up	99%	Safe D	1.4
HD-151*	Rep	57%	Toss-up	70%	Lean D	1.8
HD-48	Rep	40%	Toss-up	92%	Likely D	1.3
HD-147*	Rep	35%	Lean R	60%	Toss-up	0.0
HD-44	Rep	25%	Lean R	63%	Toss-up	1.4
HD-164	Rep	23%	Lean R	51%	Toss-up	0.8
HD-120	Rep	20%	Lean R	52%	Toss-up	0.1
HD-49	Rep	19%	Likely R	74%	Lean D	0.4
HD-19	Rep	18%	Likely R	47%	Toss-up	0.6
HD-45	Rep	17%	Likely R	80%	Likely D	1.0
HD-121	Rep	16%	Likely R	49%	Toss-up	1.6
HD-34	Rep	15%	Likely R	54%	Toss-up	1.9
HD-161	Rep	14%	Likely R	28%	Lean R	2.3
HD-46	Rep	13%	Likely R	59%	Toss-up	2.8
HD-40	Rep	13%	Likely R	24%	Lean R	2.8
HD-103	Rep	9%	Likely R	33%	Lean R	2.9
HD-81	Rep	9%	Likely R	26%	Lean R	2.5
HD-22	Rep	9%	Likely R	26%	Lean R	2.6
HD-29	Rep	8%	Likely R	21%	Lean R	2.1
HD-111	Rep	5%	Likely R	12%	Likely R	0.1

Decided at qualifying

61 State House seats where only one major party filed. These carry no state-office probability, because the outcome was settled in March rather than estimated. The federal lean is still modelled.

Seats decided at the qualifying deadline

HD-7	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-31	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-33	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-37	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-38	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-39	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-41	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-43	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-52	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-56	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-60	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-62	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-63	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-66	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-68	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-69	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-72	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-74	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-75	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-76	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-77	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-78	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-84	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-86	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-89	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-91	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-92	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-93	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-94	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-96	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-98	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-102	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-104	—	—	Republican unopposed	5%	Safe R	—
HD-106	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-109	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-117	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-129	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-132	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-133	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-134	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-135	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-136	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-137	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-143	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-144	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-146	—	—	Republican unopposed	8%	Likely R	—
HD-153	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-156	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-158	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-159	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-160	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-162	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-163	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-165	—	—	Democrat unopposed	>99%	Safe D	—
HD-169	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-170	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-171	—	—	Republican unopposed	2%	Safe R	—
HD-172	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—
HD-177	—	—	Democrat unopposed	96%	Safe D	—
HD-179	—	—	Republican unopposed	10%	Likely R	—
HD-180	—	—	Republican unopposed	<1%	Safe R	—

What these ratings do not say

We do not publish odds of either party controlling a chamber. Seats do not move independently, so seat-by-seat ratings cannot be added up into a majority.

The federal rating describes how a district votes for federal office. It measures partisan lean. It is not a forecast of any congressional or U.S. Senate race.

Where they are weakest

Ratings rest on the 2022 and 2024 elections. Older results did not pass our data checks.
Category lines are soft. A seat near a boundary could sit on either side, and if anything the ratings read more confident than the evidence warrants.
Incumbency is not part of the ratings.